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TUPNews trading idea: shorting green tea.

Chinese tea production rose by 8.7% last year, while domestic consumption grew by only 2%. In an effort to alleviate rural poverty, the Chinese government has scrapped taxes on tea production, and new orchards are springing up everywhere. Meanwhile young Chinese are all about Pop Idol (or rather, Chinese equivalent The Mongolian Cow Sour Yogurt Supergirl Concert) and drinking Pepsi. The result: a glut of exported Chinese tea soon to hit the market, driving down prices.

Make sure you mitigate the FX exposure with some choice currency derivatives, natch. It may also be worth shorting green tea producers in Sri Lanka, India and Indonesia, who are all now basically fucked.